Tunisia achieved political pluralism without any outside assistance. Five years later, the government has voted to ease its control of its financial institutions in return for a USD 2.8 billion IMF loan package. As part of its tightening control of the economy, the government has also been clamping down on the black economy by closing down smuggling routes along the Libyan border.

The first strategy has drawn a boycott from the lefitist parties in government. The second has led to civic disturbances in some of the poorest areas of the country. Could this destabilization be increasing the threat of Islamist terrorism? There were a number of security incidents today that indicate this is still alive-and-well in Tunisia.

The reforms being pushed by the IMF are not the same that have led to such political unrest in Europe, yet. However, this is still a particularly challenging time to be dismantling or restructuring any institutions. Food and fuel price increases, a dormant tourism industry, and sensitivities to the European crisis mean country-wide economic hardship. Even if necessary, reforms will contribute to fear and uncertainty in the short-term – particularly on the periphery.

More importantly, the crackdown on the black economy is leading to violence. Disorder is likely to continue in the south and east of the country where the black economy plays a greater role in ensuring livelihoods. So far, the leftists and national labour union have been able to take advantage of these economic grievances. Political Islam is the dominant political affiliation in the areas where there is most economic dissatisfaction however. There is the possibility that violence escalates, and the cause exploited by militants.

For now, the homegrown extremist threat which emerged in the early years of the revolution remains suppressed. Despite these current events, it will likely remain suppressed for as long as the Islamist parties remain active in the national political process, and government responses to civil disobedience are even-handed. Instead, terrorist activity in Tunisia will be dominated by externally-affiliated groups, and any form of social destabilisation draws attention away from their activities.