With the recapture of Ramadi from ISIS control, and ISIS on the back foot in Syria, commentators in the Arab media have been speculating on whether Mosul in Iraq, or Al-Raqqa in Syria will be next to fall.

Although both cities are within the so-called Islamic State, the context of each, and warring parties available to fight in the conflict are different. Both will require urban fighting, and thus ground forces. The troops will require air support. Each city is of different political importance to ISIS. Post-capture, both cities will require civil administration, and how this will be achieved is far from clear.

Iraqi forces have greater readiness and have just proved their capability in Ramadi. Syrian forces remain focused on targets farther away, and tied up in fighting with the Free Syrian Army and other groups.

In both countries, the Kurdish forces have been engaging ISIS on the periphery and are best positioned to make an advance. The population of Mosul is predominantly Kurdish, and so while Kurds may be accepted as a liberating force in Mosul however, their arrival in Al-Raqqa would lead to additional conflict with the local Arab population. Any further expansion of the Kurdish sphere of influence in Syria is also likely to receive opposition from Turkey.

In terms of air cover, the international coalition is operating against ISIS in both countries. The Iraqi forces are supported by the international coalition; the Russian airforce supports the Syrian regime.  In Syria, the Kurds receive support from both. In an attack on Al-Raqqa by Syrian government forces, would the international collation provide them with air support? There is still some distance to go to get to that point as it would cement tacit support of the West for the Syrian regime.

The citizenry of Mosul are mainly Kurds, who have their own national interests. The national political process of Iraq, albeit Shia dominated, is one in which the Kurds are well-represented. In Al-Raqqa, as elsewhere in the central regions of Syria, the Assad regime has no legitimacy amongst swathes of the Sunni population. An attack on Mosul would be more acceptable to the local civilian population than an attack on Al-Raqqa.

Unless there is a lasting ceasefire between the Syrian regime and the SFA, an attack on Mosul is more likely to take place before a ground attack Al-Raqqa.

One of the main barriers to undertaking the Mosul offensive however, will be psychological. The Iraqi army crumbled in the face of the initial ISIS advance. This has been attributed to collusion, corruption, and/or psychological intimidation. Whatever the reasons, this psychological barrier will need to be overcome. Although Al-Raqqa is the declared ISIS capital, any fighting inside Mosul will still be fierce. This psychological posturing will not happen overnight.