The Yemen peace talks in Kuwait seem to be at a standstill. As I have written previously, the Houthis are deeply skeptical of the process. They feel that accepting terms will either continue the status quo in the country, or otherwise divide it up into federalised areas that have unequal resource. The president was elected however, and the political process was inclusive, so is it reasonable for the Houthis to question the legitimacy of these things?
Current Yemeni president Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi was the vice president of Yemen from 1994 to 2012. No-one can deny that during this time ousted president Ali Abdullah Saleh called all the shots, but this still represents 18 years at the centre of power, by Saleh’s side. Hadi was then elected as acting president of a transitional government once Saleh left, however he was the only candidate to choose from on the ballot sheet.
Despite being the only option to vote for however, a rare showing of broad, cross-party consensus during the revolution did mean that Hadi was probably the only acceptable candidate at that time. Nevertheless, it is not reasonable to expect that this consensus must continue four years down the line; particularly following a resurgence of the civil war.
Still, the GCC countries remain active political supporters of the Hadi government. In Kuwait, they are pushing for all parties to the conflict to return to the outcomes of the National Dialogue Conference (NDC) which was the major post-Saleh peace effort.
President Hadi presided over the NDC which ran from March 18. 2013, to January 24, 2014. During that time, two Houthi representatives to the NDC were assassinated, and so they refused to participate in the conference any further. The Houthis also said that the NDC proposed a federal government that would divide the country up into poor and wealthy regions, so they did not sign up to its outcomes.
One year later, the Houthis successfully invaded Sana’a proving them to be one of the most powerful and interested stakeholders in Yemeni politics. With hindsight then, the NDC was insufficient as a political dialogue process. It is not legitimate to at least one of the major stakeholders.
It is fairly obvious then that Hadi as a president represents ‘business as usual’ while the NDC dialogue process was inadequate at incorporating the views of all stakeholders. Notwithstanding the constraints of real politic, and the absence of better – or even acceptable – alternatives, it is still reasonable to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the president and Yemeni political process. This does not legitimise or excuse the methods of the Houthis in their insurgency.
Unless the GCC and UN revisit some fundamental aspects political process they hope to return to, the peace talks with Houthis are unlikely to progress beyond simple technicalities (e.g. prisoner exchange).