Turkey has been hit with a mass-casualty terrorist attack at Istanbul airport. The attack comes hot on the heels of two significant Turkish foreign policy initiatives. Could they be related?

The first initiative is the ‘normalisation’ of relations between Turkey and Israel, which were interrupted following the storming of the Turkish-flagged ship the Mavi Mamara by Israeli special forces. The main result will be improved political legitimacy for Israel; reduced political tensions in the eastern Mediterranean, and humanitarian and development aid for Gaza.

The second initiative are a letter written and phone call from President Erdogan to President Putin, apologizing for the downing of the Russian fighter aircraft by Turkey in December 2015, and discussing resumption of economic and political ties. It comes after six months of bitter recriminations between the two countries, and an escalation of Russian-NATO tensions.

The timing of these overtures suggests there may be connection between the political shifts in Europe (Brexit referendum). Erdogan is likely to be hedging his bets on EU member states adopting more isolationist foreign policies (together or separately), regardless of whether the UK remains or leaves union. Regional stability is attractive, and an unproductive cold war with Israel does not help Turkey; while the Turkish counter-balance to Europe has historically been Russia.

Critics of the Israel deal can find consolation in supporting Gaza during the holy month of Ramadan. Also, Israel’s main focus in the Syrian conflict has been Hezbollah; siding with Israel does not immediately impact the dynamics of conflict in a way that might impact Turkey.

On the other hand, rapprochement with Russia may well alter the balance of power materially against ISIS. Russia is committed to supporting the Syrian regime – militarily and otherwise – and has been involved on bombing campaigns that have drawn outrage from across the sunni Arab world. Restoring relations with Russia is a move that all sunni groups will feel as a betrayal.  Since the regime has signaled its intent to recapture all territory, and has been fighting directly with ISIS in the last few weeks, this may also be viewed as a precursor to more substantive cooperation along the border areas.

Up to this point, ISIS and Turkey have had an ambiguous relationship. Restoring relations with Russia places these two actors into potentially opposing camps. ISIS has likely sent Erdogan the message: continue on this path, and chaos will be unleashed across Turkey. Despite the horrendous nature of the attacks, ISIS still has room to escalate – into the tourist destinations.

ISIS also knows that harming the tourist economy of Turkey will reduce its own support base within the country, which remains vital for it to operate. They took a gamble, however, that tourism would not be officially affected. It is working out: European countries, which form the bulk of visitors to Turkey, are already proving reluctant to exacerbate instability in Europe by not refining travel advice to Turkey.