Today, the Turkish Defense Minister and Foreign Minister have questioned the continued use of Inçirlik airbase by US forces for airstrikes against ISIL. This is in light of a ground offensive currently being undertaken by Turkish forces along with the Syrian Free Army, for which they want US air support.

The issue of Inçirlik airbase is a sticky one. Since the end of the Cold War, its purpose and politics change by the month, rather than by the decade – as they once did.

In the current predicament, and in light of the nature of the forces agreement between the US and Turkey, these are some salient points:

• Turkey did not authorize the use of Inçirlik as a base for attacking ISIL until June 2015, some 10 months after the commencement of US airstrikes against ISIL. This was reportedly only agreed after the US allowed Turkey to implement a no-fly zone along the northern border for the purposes of controlling Kurdish military expansion in these areas.
• One year later, in July 2016, the Turkish military shut down the entire air base. This was because of the coup that had been instigated that month, and Inçirlik was viewed as a hotbed of sedition: a “think tank” of plotters. American personnel and nuclear weaponry were removed from country; strikes resumed 3 weeks later.
• The US coalition conducts approximately 10 sorties per day on ISIS in Syria, i.e. around 300 per month. Since it opened for business in 2015, thousands of sorties have been from Inç In the first three months in which Turkey opened its full campaign in Syria including a land incursion and airstrikes, Turkey only launched three airstrikes on ISIL in Syria.
• Despite being a NATO member, since August 2016, Turkey entertains the concept of allowing Russian airstrikes from Inç

The operation of Inçirlik has not been plain sailing.

What these Turkish ministers are now suggesting is that unless the US provides more air cover for their operations, then they will stop the US from using Inçirlik, as it does not benefit the Turkish people sufficiently.

Turkey is now in an alliance with Russia, and to a degree Iran, with respect to its military operations in Syria. The Free Syrian Army’s has also experienced a progressive level of collusion with Al-Qa’ida affiliated organisations. With that in mind, US reluctance to integrate operations further into the ground campaign – beyond coordination in its ongoing airstrikes against ISIL – does not seem surprising. All things remaining equal, this situation is unlikely to change prior to the new US administration taking office.

This may be frustrating, but does that mean Turkey should throw the baby out with the bathwater? If Turkey is serious about destroying ISIS, then the continued degradation of ISIS capabilities by the US coalition should come as a welcome service. The continued use of the Inçirlik airbase supports that aim, does not interfere negatively with Turkish operations, has no financial cost to Turkey, and carries local economic benefits. If these are insufficient as benefits, then all this may relate to something altogether different.