On December 30th 2016,  Lockheed Martin announced it would provide the upgrade to patriot users including Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, as well as Taiwan, Japan, and the Republic of Korea. Correlation does not mean causation. However, it does seem that the roll-out has provided an impetus for a new round of missile one-upmanship from the Middle East to Far East.

Over the following ten days, North Korea signaled its desire to test fire an intercontinental range missile; Pakistan test fired a submarine-launched 500km range missile; India test fired a long range missile; while Iran’s parliament confirmed that it will continue funding its own long range missile program.

These countries are typically considered to have their own stove-piped conflicts: Saudi Arabia states against Iran; Pakistan versus India; and North Korea versus against all comers but more specifically (and traditionally) – South Korea, and Japan. Yet the uptick in missile activity implies a more connected system of interests.

China, India, and Pakistan all now prioritise naval supremacy in the Indian Ocean and it has been suggested that India’s new ICBM capability is developed with China in mind. An unguarded nuclear ‘threat’ in social media last week from a Pakistani government minister to Israel also serves to illustrate that decision-makers are thinking more laterally about who is now a potential or actual adversary.

Within the last three months, China has signed a defence agreement with Iran. It has also has stationed naval vessels in Pakistani waters and given joint announcements with Pakistan regarding security in Afghanistan. Renegade Chinese nationals now participate in the sectarian conflict in Syria, which looks like it could draw some form of state response. China’s growing economic interests in the Middle East and its ‘economic corridor’ through Central Asia will only serve to entrench its engagement.

Another important development is the growing pressure on the narrow waterways on both sea approaches to the Saudi peninsula. In the last few days there has been fighting along the Bab al-Mandab straight in Yemen between the Sunni-backed government forces, and the Shia-backed Houthis; while on the Omani side, warning shots fired between Iranian revolutionary guards and US forced in the straights of Hormuz.

The patriot missile roll out was global in scope because of the numerous different countries using the system. However it also serves to highlight the requirements of one particular axis in a wider, connected system. Ethnicity, identity, economics, borders, and nuclear politics, mean that core interests are becoming integrated. Saudi, Iran, Pakistan, India, China and others are all now touching different parts of the same elephant.